There is an interesting analysis article over at Real Clear Politics that lays out a scenario whereby the August Republican National Convention evolves into the worst nightmare imaginable for party officials – a brokered convention. Based on how Republican candidates for president have done so far with different demographics and regions of the country, Sean Trende predicts how the race for the Republican nomination may play out and lays out a scenario where a brokered Republican convention could take place.
Now, it’s no secret that a brokered convention would be a catastrophe for Republican Party leaders use to grand coronations at their quadrennial national party events. After all, anything could happen. Chaos could rule or a dark horse candidate not officially sanctioned by the party oligarchs could emerge. In either case their lack of control would disrupt the usual smooth proceedings meant to portray to the nation a party united, happy, and excited about its standard bearer.
Given his campaign’s strategy of focusing on caucuses and out hustling his rivals at local, county, and state conventions nationwide the main beneficiary of a brokered convention would be Texas Congressman Ron Paul. The fact of the matter is that most Americans do not get involved in politics. Many rightly view it as an ugly, corrupt business. Others are too busy following American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, or the latest escapades of Lindsay Lohan. While others would rather leave it to the professionals. But, Ron Paul supporters are different. They may not outnumber the supporters of other candidates, but they are hungrier and more dedicated to their principles. They are much more willing to show up, outlast, and fight for delegate positions than the supporters of rival candidates. These attributes seem to be paying dividends for the Paul campaign at least in the early stages of the delegate selection process.
In Iowa, Ron Paul supporters have become delegates for other candidates. Under party rules, if the convention is brokered at some point those delegates could be eligible to throw their support behind Dr. Paul.
In Georgia, Paul forces took over or as local GOP officials called it “hijacked” the DeKalb County delegate-selection convention in eastern metropolitan Atlanta. They also missed by a whisker doing the same thing in populous Cobb County.
And in Clark County, Nevada, home to Las Vegas, at the county GOP convention made up of over 2600 delegates, Paul supporters organized and triumphed by electing Paulites to all 14 seats on the ballot for county GOP executive committee board. These 14 new members of the board will make up two-thirds of the ruling body. Consequently, that county’s GOP platform now calls for holding elected officials to their oath to the Constitution, repeal of the 16th Amendment, and a full audit of the Federal Reserve.
The process of selecting delegates in most states is in the early stages. There will be multiple stories like the ones mentioned above. Ultimately, there may be a brokered Republican convention in August. Then again, there may not be. Ron Paul may not get the GOP nomination for president in 2012, but whoever does will be leading a party much different from the one that exists today. It will include delegates to the national convention, activists, and party officials who support a non-interventionist foreign policy, sound money, and civil liberties. You talk about a nightmare for the party oligarchs!
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Your article mentions that the Republican Oligarchs do not want a brokered convention. I have been unable to find a list of the people who qualify as the Republican leadership that Paul, Sanatorium, and Gingrich supporters rail against. Is it the state and county leaders who are trying to control caucus results, or is it other people. Any help in my understanding who these people are would be appreciated.
For me those party oligarchs are the chairs of each state, the state party officials, and the senior elected politicians in each state. These are the folks that control the machines, decide who gets what, and attempt to ensure that the Republicans provide as much largess to the electorate so as to compete with the Democrats as much as possible. They are the folks that have worked their way up in the party by kissing ass, selling out their principles, and puttng party over country.
What is happening in the primaries right now is basically the same thing that was happening in 2008, except that the race was actually much closer between Romney and McCain. Once those two had enough delegates between them to nominate a candidate Romney mysteriously bowed out and pledged his support to McCain so there would be no brokered convention. I think TPTB in the Republican Party whispered in Romney’s ear back then telling him to bow out and probably promising him the nomination “next time”. The same will happen to Santorum this time – he will bow out stating that he wants to help “heal” the Republican Party’s divisions. Due to this he will be offered the VP position or the nomination next time. The Republican Party more than realizes that most Ron Paul followers WILL be delegates, so from the Republican leadership’s point of view a brokered convention can never be allowed. Romney will have the 1144 delegates before going into the convention, so he will win on the first ballot, when delegates have to vote for their state’s victor.
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Viva la revolucion de Ron Paul, he’s the only one who can beat obomba.
Ron Paul already has 2/3 of the delegates for 5 states, so Romney will definitely not get the 1144 delegates needed. There will definitely be a brokered convention and Ron Paul will win it based on the delegates for other candidates switching over their vote.
It seems people have forgotten what happened in 2008: Romney and McCain were running neck and neck until Romney dropped and pledged support to McCain, which gave McCain enough delegates for nomination. This is what they will do this time with Romney and Santorum. Santorum will eventually drop and pledge support to Romney, and they will give the nomination to Santorum next time, just the same as they are doing for Romney this time because he dropped for them last time.
Ron Paul will win the nomination based on having 2/3 of the delegates in all the primary states currently and then having people as delegates for the other candidates. Romney will not get the 1144 delegates and there will be a brokered convention.